Countdown to Regionals:  A Regional Race Overview

by Greg

As we head into "Championship Week" and the final weekend of competition, the regional races are coming down to the wire.  At stake this weekend are one of 36 post season slots.  As always, these coveted spots in the post season are earned through the Regional Qualifying Score (RQS).  This season, the RQS is determined by the following formula:  take the team's top three AWAY scores, take the top three OTHER (home or away) scores, throw OUT the HIGHEST, and AVERAGE the remaining five.

There has been considerable confusion this season as the original Regionals seeding criteria was altered after the events of 9/11.  Originally, the Top 18 teams in the country were going to be assigned seeds in one of six regions, according to a set of criteria outlined in the Championships Handbook.  However, it now appears that the criteria is being adjusted to seed the Top 12 teams, and then place the next six teams according to geographic proximity (rather than by an algorithm determined through host, rank, and geography).  The analysis that follows is based on that criteria.

The Top 12

The top 12 teams will be apparantly assigned in pairs (#1 and #12, #2 and #11), with a ranked team that is also a Regionals host "anchoring" the pair in that regional site.  Special rules exist in the case that both teams are serving as hosts.  As we enter the final meets, an interesting race has developed for the number 12 spot currently held by Arizona (195.78).  The Wildcats are currently closely followed by Denver (195.77) and Oregon State (195.735).  Both the Pioneers and the Beavers are host sites, and would very much like a coveted Top 12 seed.  

Entering the final weekend, a team's maximum RQS score has already been capped by its highest (throwaway) score.  Thus, teams with a high score that is well above its average have the most room to improve this weekend.  Likewise, teams that are carrying a low score in their RQS are also at an advantage and could easily leapfrog several teams ahead of them with a strong performance this weekend.  

Because of this criteria, Arizona is at a slight disadvantage, with a lowest score of 195.5 and a high score of 196.7 (max RQS of 196.02).  Denver carries a low of 195.225 and a high of 196.5 (max RQS of 196.025).  However, Oregon State carries a low score of 194.925 and a high of 196.675, and therefore carries the advantage of the highest "theoretical MAX" RQS (196.085).  In addition to these three teams, BYU  

Top 18 Race

Also exciting is the battle for slots in the top 18.  In all cases, teams on the "bubble" of 18 also have other teams in their regions rooting them on this weekend.  This is because the regional fields are of course completed by the next three ranked teams in that region.   After this past weekend, a gap opened between from #18 Florida (195.405) and #19 Kentucky (195.28).  Florida has a theoretical max RQS of 195.795, obtained by replacing their current low score of 194.95.  However, Kentucky is still carrying a relatively low 194.75 in their RQS, and also has a max RQS potential of 195.67.  A strong performance could still move them into the top 18.

Positions 15 (currently BYU), 16 (ASU), 17 (Iowa), and 18 are also still up for grabs.  BYU has a max RQS potential of 195.945, with a current low score of 194.95.   Due to a high of 197.85, Arizona State could end up as high as 196.045.  Their current low score is 194.8.  Iowa could still hit an RQS of 195.735, through dropping their currnet low of 194.825.  Any one of these teams ranked 12 through 16, plus # 18 could end up in the 12th position.  

Michigan State, with a low 193.65 away score currently counted in their RQS, can still max out at 195.485, although they carry a relatively low "high" score of 195.725.  Penn State is also still mathematically in the mix with a max RQS of 195.475, as is West Virginia (195.465 max).

All apologies if my math was incorrect.

Regional Races

Qualifying for Regionals is the main goal for many teams in the NCAA.  This weekend, the final regional slots will be determined.  As mentioned previously, many teams are not just concerned with "staying ahead" of other teams in their region.  At times, the final slot is also at the mercy of another higher ranked team in the region.  Namely, the teams that qualify in the Top 18 also serve to "pull along" another team in their region.

In the West, there is currently a tie between Sacramento State and Boise State for the final slot in the region.  Washington and Cal State Fullerton have secured the other two slots.  Heading into the weekend, Boise State has the advantage.  Their current low score is a 193.35, with a max RQS potential of 194.23.  Sac State's max potential is 194.07, with a current low of 193.5.  Interestingly, Sac State's highest three scores are all AWAY meets.  

In the North Central, Air Force (193.745/max 194.005) and Utah State (193.505/max 194.02) are closely bunched.  For the first times, there are SIX teams from the North Central currently in the top 18.  However, if one or more of these teams falls from the top 18 (BYU is #15, and Iowa is #17), these teams could be bumped.  

In the South Central, Missouri and UIC look to be solid.  As long as ASU stays in the top 18, it appears Illinois-Champaign (193.63/max 193.985) and TWU (193.75/194.135) are battling for the last slot, with 2001 regional qualifier Illinois State (193.355/max 193.66) just behind.  

In the Central region, Kentucky is the big swing factor.  If they can pull into the top 18, they will pull another one of a closely bunched group of team into the regional meet.  Michigan State (195.07/max 195.485), Bowling Green (194.96/max 195.31), and Central Michigan (194.92/max 195.24) are all closely grouped, and could easily displace each other.  Ohio State is limited to a max of 195.045 (194.795) because they host the Big 10 meet.  With a current high score of 196.9, Kent State (194.735) has plenty of room to move, and could still hit a max of 195.35.  Conversely, Auburn (194.495) can only hit a max of 194.875 through their performances this weekend.

In the Northeast, UNH and Pittburgh look to qualify.  Unless an injury hobbled Penn State can pull into the top 18, only these three teams will advance to the regional.  However, if PSU can continue to overcome adversity and pull into the top 18, URI, Yale and Rutgers are closely bunched for a final spot.

Finally, the Southeast region continues to be highly competitive.  Surprisingly, only UGA has a lock at a top 18 seed at this time.  Florida is on the bubble, but has a high potential to secure that slot this weekend.  Going into the final weekend, five teams are battling for the last three slots.  NC State (194.985/max 195.18), WVU (194.825/max 195.465), GWU (194.82/max 195.02), Maryland (194.785/195.23), and North Carolina (194.77/max 195.235) are all battling for the last three slots.  All five teams could switch places once again during this final weekend, leaving much at stake.  Of the five, WVU also still has the theoretical potential to move into the top 18 and carries the lowest counting score in their average.  As an additional side note, GWU is yet another rare case in which the three highest scores in the RQS are all AWAY meets (Sac State was the other).

Once again, all apologies for any unintentional calculation errors in this write-up.

Good Luck to all teams this weekend.

Updated March 21st, 2002