Race to Regionals, 2005:  Week of February 28th

February 28th, 2005

In a new feature, we’re taking a weekly look at the Race to the Regionals.  Each week, we’ll size up the races for the Regional berths, Region by Region.  

Central Region

Seeded teams:

#2 LSU
#7 Alabama
#15 Central Michigan
#16 Kentucky

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals:

#20 Auburn
#23 Michigan State
#29 Kent State

Next in line:

#32 Ohio State
#38 Bowling Green

This is a deep region with the only teams safely in position of earning Regionals spots being LSU, Alabama, and Central Michigan.  Even Kentucky, currently in position to be a seeded team, could not only drop out of seeded position, but could possibly fall out of a Regionals spot altogether.  

In looking at the national rankings, there seems to be a line of demarcation, by way of a greater than .4 difference in RQS between #15 Central Michigan and #16 Kentucky.  No one is, of course, guaranteed a seeded spot at this point, but Central Michigan seems safely in position to at the minimum maintain an unseeded Regionals spot.  Kentucky, on the other hand, will likely find itself in fierce battle with Auburn, Michigan State, and Kent State.  If at least one of these teams receives a seeded spot, all of these teams are in excellent position make Regionals, however if none of them receive seeded spots, any of them could be the odd man out.

Kentucky (current RQS of 194.625) and Auburn (194.33) need higher road scores to solidify their positions.  Michigan State (194.09) and Kent State (193.655) have larger ranges of counting scores than Kentucky and Auburn, and therefore appear to have more room for improvement.  Kent State, in particular, has only had three away meets and has a chance to improve its RQS by more than a point in a single week if the team scores a 194 this weekend to replace the 188 they are currently carrying.

Ohio State (193.53), currently not in position to make Regionals, is not far behind Kent State, but would have a hard time making the jump given Kent State’s likely large improvement in RQS in the coming weeks.  Their best hope is that five Central Region teams become seeded (instead of the current four).  Bowling Green (192.595), with perhaps the most sizeable discrepancy between home and road scores, is a long shot to make Regionals.

As things stand now, the following would the individual qualifiers to Regionals:

All-Around

Karley Walek, Ohio State
Kristina Menne, Centenary
Jessica Surridge, Ball State
Cherisse Marier, Western Michigan
Kristin DiPietro, Bowling Green
(Next in line- Kelli Davis, Ball State)

Vault

Jessica Guyer, Bowling Green

Uneven Bars-

Jessica Bradley, Bowling Green

Balance Beam-

Elizabeth Meaney, Ohio State

Floor Exercise-

Jessica Guyer, Bowling Green

North Central Region

Seeded teams:

#3 Utah
#9 Iowa State
#12 Denver
#14 Brigham Young
#18 Southern Utah

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify for Regionals:

#19 Minnesota
#31 Utah State
#34 Iowa

Next in line:

#61 Air Force Academy
#71 Wisconsin-La Crosse

This is currently the only region in position to send eight of its teams to Regionals, with five seeded teams.  Only Southern Utah is looking particularly insecure in its seeded position.  Utah State and Iowa have to hope that either Southern Utah or Minnesota keeps a seeded position, or one of those two will likely be out.

Southern Utah (current RQS of 194.57) and Minnesota (194.425) are looking fairly secure to receive, at the minimum, unseeded Regionals spots.  They are approximately a point ahead of next-in-line Utah State (193.56), and they are both in position to improve their RQS enough to stay ahead.  Utah State and Iowa (193.225) both have even more room to improve and will battle one another, but probably not enough room to catch Southern Utah or Minnesota.

Air Force Academy (187.845) looks to factor into the Regionals hunt only if both Southern Utah and Minnesota qualify for seeded spots.

As things stand now, the following would the individual qualifiers to Regionals:

All-Around-

Jessa Liegl, Air Force
Lauren Robison, Air Force
Sashonna Iwaniec, Air Force
Ashley Koechel, Wisconsin-La Crosse
Alison Eagles, Wisconsin-Eau Claire
(Next in line- Amy Bickler, Winona State)

Vault-

Kelly Lewis, Air Force

Uneven Bars-

Nina Schubert, Wisconsin-La Crosse

Balance Beam-

Jessica VanDenHeuvel, Winona State

Floor Exercise-

Jennifer Houle, Wisconsin-La Crosse  

Northeast Region

Seeded teams:

#5 Michigan
#17 Penn State

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify for Regionals:

#39 New Hampshire
#51 Rutgers
#53 Pittsburgh

Next in line:

#58 Pennsylvania
#60 Yale

This region is perennially the weakest in terms of depth, and this year is no different.  Michigan, Penn State, and New Hampshire appear to be virtual locks on Regionals berths.  Whether Rutgers (current RQS of 190.695), Pittsburgh (190.35), Pennsylvania (189.095), and Yale (188.245) are fighting for one spot or two will depend on whether Penn State is able to hold on to its seeded berth.  Yale may be trailing the pack, but the team is carrying a 184 and a 185, so they could make some big improvements in their RQS by getting rid of those two scores.

As things stand now, the following would the individual qualifiers to Regionals:

All-Around-

Emily Petkun, Pennsylvania
Carrie Santore, Brockport
Emily Domenick, U. of Rhode Island
Anne McPherson, Yale
Sarah Wesley, Southern Connecticut
(Next in line- Amber Smith, Brown)

Vault-

Laura Bouchelle, Pennsylvania

Uneven Bars-

Kathryn Fong, Yale

Balance Beam-

Kathryn Fong, Yale

Floor Exercise-

Christine Lacy, Yale

South Central Region

Seeded teams:

#1 Nebraska
#10 Oklahoma
#13 Arkansas

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals:

#21 Arizona
#35 Missouri (should be #25 this week, but their latest meet result was not entered into Troester in time)
#26 (tie) Illinois

Next in line:

#26 (tie) Arizona State (loses tiebreaker, which is the highest score not including the six scores included in the RQS)
#36 Illinois-Chicago

There will be quite a fight in this region, among several deserving teams.  Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Arkansas seem relatively secure in their seeded spots, and Arizona seems secure as at least an unseeded qualifier.  Missouri, Illinois, and Arizona State have to hope that Arizona will be able to swing a seeded spot, or one of them will not qualify to Regionals.

Missouri (current RQS of 193.945) has a large discrepancy between home and road scores.  If, in their two remaining away meets, they can manage to bring in a couple of road scores near the level of their home scores, they could solidify their position.  Neither Illinois (193.885) nor Arizona State (193.885) seems to have a particular advantage in the race, so it will be a real fight.  Illinois-Chicago (192.72) will have a hard time catching any of the above teams.

As things stand now, the following would the individual qualifiers to Regionals:

All-Around-

Ashley Kelly, Arizona State
Cassandra Jusino, Arizona State
April Boone, Arizona State
Jackie Jaworowicz, Illinois-Chicago
Tara Boldt, Southeast Missouri
(Next in line- Kristina Campos, Northern Illinois)

Vault-

Veronique Meunier, Illinois-Chicago

Uneven Bars-

Ashlee Williams, Northern Illinois

Balance Beam-

Kari Muth, Arizona State

Floor Exercise-

Rachel Zelinski, Illinois-Chicago

Southeast Region

Seeded teams:

#6 Florida
#8 Georgia

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals:

#24 North Carolina
#25 North Carolina State
#30 West Virginia

Next in line:

#37 Maryland
#41 Towson

With only two teams seeded out of this region, it means bad news for Maryland and Towson, who would otherwise be fighting for the sixth spot.  While nothing is ever certain with the whole month of March to go, this region looks to be the most stable of all.  Florida and Georgia will almost certainly be seeded.  None of the other Southeast teams have more than an outside chance at becoming seeded, and it will be a real challenge for Maryland (current RQS of 192.71) or Towson (191.76) to make up the nearly one and two points, respectively, that they are trailing West Virginia (193.635). However, with five meets remaining for both of those teams, each could have a whole new RQS by the end of the season.

As things stand now, the following would the individual qualifiers to Regionals:

All-Around-

Rachel Martinez, Maryland
Erin Aiken, George Washington
(These are the only two gymnasts from this region with all-around RQS who are not on a qualifying team.)

Vault-

Amy Stack, George Washington

Uneven Bars-

Rachel Colon, Maryland

Balance Beam-

Alexandria Gatch, Maryland

Floor Exercise-

Virginia Scott, Maryland

West Region

Seeded teams:

#4 UCLA
#11 Oregon State

Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals:

#22 Washington
#28 Stanford
#33 Boise State

Next in line:

#40 Sacramento State
#42 San Jose State

UCLA and Oregon State look secure to earn seeded spots to Regionals, so the big question in this region is whether Washington (current RQS of 194.115) or Stanford (193.715) can turn things up a notch and grab seeded spots themselves.  Both teams are currently carrying both home and away scores in the 192s and 193s, so replacing those could make a big impact.  Whether that would be enough remains to be seen.

Boise State (193.355) appears to be solidly in position to make Regionals in an unseeded berth, while Sacramento State (192.09) and San Jose State (191.695) will have to hope Washington and Stanford have great end runs to their seasons.

As things stand now, the following would the individual qualifiers to Regionals:

All-Around-

Greta Leach, San Jose State
My-Lan Dodd, California
Debra Huss, Seattle-Pacific
Jennifer Greene, San Jose State
Brittany Hoffman, Cal State-Fullerton
(Next in line- Sarah Sullivan, Seattle-Pacific)

Vault-

Dominique Ingram, Alaska

Uneven Bars-

Alexis Tsurumoto, Sacramento State

Balance Beam-

Melissa Genovese, Sacramento State

Floor Exercise-

Stefanie Aeder, Sacramento State