The Race to Regionals:  Week of March 20th

March 20th, 2006 Race to Regionals– The Final Edition We are now in the final week of the regular season, which means that it is possible to calculate the maximum RQS, which is the RQS that will be achieved if a team ties or beats its season high score this weekend.  It is also possible to figure the minimum and maximum ranks a team can hold at the end of the season.  Note that the more tightly clustered a team’s counting scores are, the less room there is to improve in the final week.  Conversely, if a team is currently counting a score in its RQS that is a great deal lower than its season high, this team has a much wider range between its current RQS and maximum RQS. In the table below, these statistics are displayed for the top 51 teams in the nation.  This encompasses all of the teams currently in position for the 36 Regionals berths nationwide.  The team's Region is grouped by color code.      Rank  Team Region Current RQS Max.  RQS Min. Rank Max. Rank Meets Left 1 Georgia, U. of SE 197.255 197.375 1 1 1A 2 Utah, U. of NC 196.595 196.705 5 2 1H 3 Florida, U. of SE 196.515 196.78 6 2 1A 4 Iowa State NC 196.505 196.71 8 2 1A 5 Alabama, U. of C 196.365 196.46 9 5 1A 6 Oklahoma, U. of SC 196.335 196.545 9 3 1A 7 Michigan, U. of NE 196.23 196.515 10 3 1A 8 L.S.U. C 196.205 196.515 11 3 1A 9 Arizona State SC 196.12 196.635 12 2 1A 10 Stanford Univ. W 196.085 196.29 12 7 1A 11 Nebraska, U. of SC 196.005 196.15 13 9 1H - UCLA W 196.005 196.23 13 7 1A 13 Missouri, U. of SC 195.79 195.885 16 13 1A 14 Auburn Univ. C 195.69 196.04 16 11 1A 15 Arizona, U. of SC 195.615 195.9 17 13 1A 16 Penn State NE 195.53 195.925 19 13 1A 17 Oregon State W 195.235 195.56 20 16 1H 18 Kentucky, U. of C 195.225 195.54 20 16 1A 19 Arkansas, U. of SC 195.165 195.63 21 15 1A 20 Denver, U. of NC 194.875 195.4 21 17 1A 21 Minnesota, U. of NC 194.805 195.225 21 18 1A 22 West Virginia Univ. SE 194.535 194.74 26 22 1A 23 Brigham Young Univ. NC 194.45 194.725 27 22 1A 24 North Carolina, U. o SE 194.355 194.69 28 22 1A 25 Southern Utah Univ. NC 194.325 194.715 28 22 1A 26 New Hampshire, U. of NE 194.065 194.195 31 26 1A 27 Illinois-Champaign SC 194.06 194.545 31 22 1A 28 Boise State Univ. W 193.995 194.495 32 23 1A 29 Michigan State C 193.89 194.435 32 24 1H 30 Sacramento State W 193.88 194.305 32 26 1A 31 Ohio State Univ. C 193.66 194.035 33 28 1A 32 North Carolina State SE 193.505 194.26 35 26 1A 33 San Jose State W 193.305 193.405 36 33 1A 34 Iowa, U. of NC 193.19 193.595 38 32 1A 35 Washington, U. of W 193.17 193.305 39 33 1A 36 Maryland-College Par SE 193.03 193.55 41 32 1A 37 Utah State NC 192.97 193.065 42 36 1H 38 Kent State Universit C 192.955 193.825 42 31 1A 39 Towson University SE 192.865 193.235 42 34 1A 40 Illinois-Chicago SC 192.745 193.175 44 35 1A 41 George Washington U. SE 192.57 193.03 46 36 1A 42 Central Michigan C 192.395 193.17 48 35 1A 43 Pittsburgh, U. of NE 192.28 192.75 49 40 1A 44 Western Michigan C 192.255 192.49 49 42 1H 45 California W 192.17 192.7 49 41 1A 46 Eastern Michigan C 192.135 192.655 49 41 1A 47 Northern Illinois Un SC 192.065 192.78 49 40 1A 48 S.E. Missouri SC 192.005 192.45 49 42 1H 49 Cal State-Fullerton W 191.95 192.32 49 43 1A 50 Texas Woman's Univ. SC 191.375 191.53 51 50 1A 51 Rutgers NE 190.885 191.155 52 51 1H A look at the national rankings reveals that it is mathematically impossible for #1 Georgia to be caught by any other team.  The teams ranked 2 to 15 will be seeded teams and cannot be knocked out of seeded position.   #16 Penn State, #17 Oregon State, #18 Kentucky, #19 Arkansas, and #20 Denver are the only remaining teams on the bubble for seeded positions.  The best case scenario for #21 Minnesota is a tie for #18 with Kentucky (if Kentucky does not improve, Arkansas and Denver do not improve enough to surpass Kentucky, and Minnesota achieves a season high), but even then they would lose the tiebreaker (highest score not counting in the RQS). Central Region Seeded teams: #5 Alabama #8 LSU\ #14 Auburn #18 Kentucky Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals: #29 Michigan State #31 Ohio State #38 Kent State Next in line: #42 Central Michigan #44 Western Michigan While Alabama, LSU, and Auburn are assured seeded berths, Kentucky’s fate still hangs in the balance.  Michigan State and Ohio State are guaranteed unseeded berths. There has been a tight race all season between Kent State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, and #46 Eastern Michigan, but the latter two are now out of the running to qualify to Regionals.  It is mathematically impossible for either Western Michgan or Eastern Michigan to overtake Kent State for the final unseeded spot in the Central Region. So, Kent State (current RQS 192.955, max 193.825) and Central Michigan (current RQS 192.395, max 193.17) will be dueling each other this weekend, but it is worth noting that Kent State has a sizeable advantage in this fight.  The hopes of both teams will be dashed if Kentucky falls even a single spot in the rankings.  As things stand now, the following would be the individual qualifiers to Regionals: All-Around- Cherisse Marier, Western Michigan Rebecca Fuss, Eastern Michigan Jolene Worley, Eastern Michigan Jennifer Sturgis, Western Michigan Kristina Menne, Centenary (Next in line- Heather Carroll, Western Michigan) Vault- Mattie Crawford, Central Michigan Uneven Bars- Sheena Smith, Central Michigan Balance Beam- Jules Passy, Central Michigan  Floor Exercise- Danielle Espinoza, Central Michigan   North Central Region Seeded teams: #2 Utah #4 Iowa State Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify for Regionals: #20 Denver #21 Minnesota #23 Brigham Young Next in line: #25 Southern Utah #34 Iowa Utah and Iowa State have earned seeded positions for Regionals, while Denver is hoping to break back into the top 18.  Minnesota is guaranteed an unseeded berth, but Brigham Young (current RQS 194.45, max 194.725) could be overtaken by Southern Utah (current RQS 194.325, max 194.715) for the final spot.  If Denver does move into seeded position, both of these teams will receive unseeded berths. Iowa and #37 Utah State, who have been hanging close to Southern Utah all season, are now out of the hunt for Regionals. As things stand now, the following would be the individual qualifiers to Regionals: All-Around- Jessica Parenti, Utah State Sheena Shaw, Southern Utah Leah Sakhitab, Southern Utah Liz Grajewski, Iowa Meagan Lewis, Utah State  (Next in line- Ashley Sharpe, Southern Utah) Vault- Kortny Williamson, Iowa Uneven Bars- Ashley Sharpe, Southern Utah Balance Beam- Rachel Tanner, Southern Utah Floor Exercise- Rachel Tanner, Southern Utah   Northeast Region Seeded teams: #7 Michigan #16 Penn State Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify for Regionals: #26 New Hampshire #43 Pittsburgh #51 Rutgers Next in line: #58 Yale #60 Cornell Michigan is the only team in the Northeast Region to be a lock for seeded spot, but Penn State is in good position to stay in the top 18.  New Hampshire and Pittsburgh are guaranteed unseeded berths, and Rutgers can only fail to qualify to Regionals if Penn State does fall to #19 (their lowest possible rank). As things stand now, the following would be the individual qualifiers to Regionals: All-Around- Kelly Gurney, Rhode Island U. Alina Liao, Yale Emily Petkun, Pennsylvania Kimberly So, Yale Stephanie Ortiz, Pennsylvania (Next in line- TIE- Emily Rinaldo, Rhode Island U. and Brittany Anderson, Brown) Vault- Miki Seltzer, Yale Uneven Bars- Cathy Schnell, Cornell Balance Beam- Lauren Tatsuno, Yale Floor Exercise- Miki Seltzer, Yale   South Central Region Seeded teams: #6 Oklahoma #9 Arizona State #11 Nebraska #13 Missouri #15 Arizona Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals: #19 Arkansas #27 Illinois-Champaign #40 Illinois-Chicago Next in line: #47 Northern Illinois #48 Southeast Missouri The South Central Region is guaranteed to have at least five seeded teams, in Oklahoma, Arizona State, Nebraska, Missouri, and Arizona, and they could possibly have a sixth in Arkansas.  Illinois-Champaign is guaranteed an unseeded Regionals berth. Mathematically, Illinois-Chicago (current RQS 192.745, max 193.175) could be caught by Northern Illinois (current RQS 192.065, max 197.78) for the final unseeded berth, but Illinois-Chicago has a big advantage going into this weekend.  These teams would love to see Arkansas move into the top 18, which would open up another unseeded berth.  If this happens, Southeast Missouri (current RQS 192.005, max 192.45) could challenge Northern Illinois for the additional spot, but Southeast Missouri cannot move ahead of Illinois-Chicago. As things stand now, the following would be the individual qualifiers to Regionals: All-Around- Sandra Blake, Southeast Missouri Brystol Powelski, Southeast Missouri Alison Ezell, Southeast Missouri Danyelle Aber, Southeast Missouri Cheryl Berezan, Illinois State (These are the only five gymnasts from this region with all-around RQS who are not on a qualifying team.) Vault- Meaghan Koshman, Illinois State Uneven Bars- TIE- Maureen Grimaldi, Southeast Missouri and Courtney Arno, Texas Woman’s Balance Beam- Jennifer Naughton, Northern Illinois Floor Exercise- Jennifer Naughton, Northern Illinois   Southeast Region Seeded teams: #1 Georgia #3 Florida Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals: #22 West Virginia #24 North Carolina #32 North Carolina State Next in line: #36 Maryland #39 Towson Georgia and Florida remain locks for seeded berths to Regionals.  Meanwhile, West Virginia and North Carolina are guaranteed unseeded berths.  North Carolina State (current RQS 193.505, max 194.26) can still be caught by Maryland (current RQS 193.03, max 193.55), but it would take nearly a season high from Maryland and no or minimal improvement from North Carolina State. #39 Towson and #41 George Washington are out of the running for Regionals qualification. As things stand now, the following would be the individual qualifiers to Regionals: All-Around- Christina Ghani, Towson Rachel Martinez, Maryland Rachel Colon, Maryland Erin Aiken, George Washington Decelia Willacy, Towson (Next in line- Jess Randall, William and Mary) Vault- Angela Ferg, Maryland Uneven Bars- Cristina Lindo, Towson Balance Beam- Alex Gatch, Maryland Floor Exercise- Jess Guilbert, George Washington   West Region   Seeded teams: #10 Stanford #11 UCLA #17 Oregon State Unseeded teams currently in position to qualify to Regionals: #28 Boise State #30 Sacramento State #33 San Jose State Next in line: #35 Washington #45 California Stanford and UCLA have earned seeded Regionals berths, but Oregon State is still in the thick of the battle to remain in the top 18.  Boise State and Sacramento State cannot be caught by any of the lower-ranked West Region teams, which means that they are guaranteed unseeded spots. The competition between San Jose State (current RQS 193.305, max 193.405) and Washington (current RQS 193.17, max 193.305) is still on, but the best Washington can hope for is a tie if they earn a season high score and San Jose scores 193.125 or lower this weekend.  The tie-breaker would be won by San Jose State if they score between 193.0 and 193.125 this weekend or by Washington if San Jose State scores below 193. So, in effect, San Jose State will advance to Regionals if they score at least a 193.0 this weekend, no matter what Washington does. As things stand now, the following would the individual qualifiers to Regionals: All-Around- Chelsea Bakken, Washington Jessica Kelley, California Britani Pittullo, California Jessica Portlock, Alaska Jaynie Reynolds, Seattle-Pacific (Next in line- Erica Ficarotta, Cal State Fullerton) Vault- Ashley Houghting, Washington Uneven Bars- Kelly McDonald, Washington Balance Beam- Kelly McDonald, Washington Floor Exercise- Kristen Omori, Washington

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