The Race to Regionals:  March 6th, 2007

Nationally, the top four teams, #1 Florida, #2 Georgia, #3 Stanford, and #4 Alabama have remained the same this week, though Alabama has narrowed Stanford’s lead to only .01.  Alabama has the advantage in this race, counting a wider range of scores than Stanford, including a mid-195.  With Georgia’s two remaining meets compared to Florida’s four, and the large lead these two teams have on the rest of the field, the top two teams will likely remain in the top two spots for the rest of the regular season.

Still unable to break 197, Utah has fallen from #5 to #7 this week.  All of Utah’s counting scores are in a range of less than a single point, a disadvantage in the team’s attempt to gain much ground in the rankings.  UCLA has captured the #5 spot, breaking 197 for the first time this season at its competition this weekend.  LSU, replacing its lowest counting score with an away score two points higher, moved up two spots to #6.

#8 Nebraska and #9 Oklahoma had solid weekends, while #10 Oregon State and #11 Arkansas continued their upward trends, each rising one more spot in the rankings.  Each of the latter two teams still has one more 194 score still counting.  #12 Michigan had a great weekend, scoring a new season high on the road and jumping three spots.  Conversely, #13 Iowa State fell three spots from last week.  This team has a tight counting score range of 1.1.

#14 Denver, #15 Arizona, #16 Auburn, #17 Penn State, and #18 Missouri round out the teams in position for seeded berths to Regionals.  The most significant developments for these teams were Arizona replacing a 193 with a 196 away score, helping them rise two spots, and Missouri replacing a 192 with a 195, knocking Ohio State out of the top 18.

The major trend this week for the rest of the country is that teams that had the weekend off typically dropped multiple spots in the rankings.  These teams include Kent State (#20 last week, #25 this week), Brigham Young (#22 last week, #29 this week), and North Carolina (#29 last week, #32 this week).  

In this week’s edition of “Race to Regionals,” we are including a list of Top 50 teams with the range of each team’s six RQS-counting scores.  This will help you get a sense of which teams have more potential for significant upward movement in the rankings.  If a team has one or two of its lower scores replaced with scores close to its high score, a team possessing a larger range will see a corresponding larger jump in their RQS.  This indicator is therefore a sign of the potential for upward movement in the rankings.

Central Region

Seeded Teams:  RQS (Range of Scores, High to Low)
#4      Alabama  196.52  (1.825)
#6      LSU         196.23  (1.475)
#16     Auburn    195.37  (1.7)

Unseeded Teams in position to qualify:
#19     Ohio State        194.955  (1)
#24     Michigan State  194.3  (4.2)
#25     Kent State        194.255  (1.5)

Next in line:
#30     Kentucky              193.94  (1.15)
#31     Central Michigan    193.405 (3.625)

Ohio State fell out of the top eighteen this week, forcing Kentucky out of a Regionals berth.  Ohio State’s tight range of scores, even compared to the teams surrounding it in the rankings, will make it difficult to break back into the top tier.  Michigan State rose only one spot in the national rankings this week, but its large range of counting scores, including a 192.x, possibly gives that team an outside shot at a seeded position, and a good chance at solidifying its unseeded position.  Kent State, which had the weekend off, dropped five spots in the rankings.

If Regionals were today, the following would be the North Central Region individual qualifiers:

All-Around

Katie Simon, Central Michigan
Emilie Rymer, Kentucky
Jolene Worley, Eastern Michigan
Zu Vuong, Eastern Michigan
Jennifer Sturgis, Western Michigan
Alt.- Kristina Menne, Centenary

Vault

Krystle Cook, Kentucky
Alt.- Sheena Smith, Central Michigan 

Bars

Krystle Cook, Kentucky
Alt.- Sheena Smith, Central Michigan

Beam

Heather Hite, Kentucky
Alt.- Jules Passy, Central Michigan

Floor

Hilary Ferguson, Kentucky
Alt.- Krystle Cook, Kentucky

North Central Region

Seeded Teams:  RQS (Range of Scores, High to Low)
#7      Utah                196.22  (0.85)
#13     Iowa State      195.61  (1.1)
#14     Denver            195.54  (2.3)

Unseeded Teams in position to qualify:
#26     Minnesota          194.25  (1.7)
#27     Iowa                   194.17  (0.9)
#29     Brigham Young   194.065  (2.15)

Next in line:
#32     Southern Utah   193.39  (2.15)
#34     Utah State      193.35    (4.275)

With a new season high, Minnesota jumped up two spots in this week’s rankings, overtaking both Iowa and Brigham Young along the way.  Iowa fell three spots, and its extremely tight range of scores could continue to be a hindrance.  Brigham Young had the week off and fell seven spots!  There is a good margin between Brigham Young and the teams that follow it, but if Utah State can rid itself of the 191.x and 192.x it is currently carrying, it could shoot up in the rankings.

If Regionals were today, the following would be the North Central Region individual qualifiers:

All-Around
Elise Wheeler, Southern Utah
Leah Sakhitab, Southern Utah
Jessica Parenti-Otte, Utah State
Megan Lewis, Utah State
Shayla Garcia, Southern Utah
Alt.- SaShonna Iwaniec, Air Force

Vault

Katy Schilla, Utah State
Alt.- Heather Heinrich, Utah State

Bars

Ashley Barr, Utah State
Alt.- Kellie Dangerfield, Southern Utah

Beam

Kellie Dangerfield, Southern Utah
Alt.- Heather Heinrich, Utah State

Floor

Devin Markle, Utah State
Alt.- Nicki Felley, Utah State

Northeast Region

Seeded Teams:  (Range of Scores, High to Low)
#12     Michigan         195.62  (1.625)
#17     Penn State      195.29  (1.875)

Unseeded Teams in position to qualify:
#37     Pittsburgh           192.76  (2.4)
#39     New Hampshire   192.555  (5.475)
#53     Rutgers               190.61  (2.9)

Next in line:
#58     Cornell            188.61  (3.925)
#59     Temple            187.835  (5.5)

With a season high this week, Pittsburgh jumped two spots in the rankings, passing New Hampshire, which had the week off and fell four.  New Hampshire has four counting scores 193-195+, along with a 189.x and a 191.x.  When these lower scores are replaced, this team has a great chance of passing Pittsburgh again.  Rutgers is fairly securely ahead of Cornell but will have to keep an eye on whether Penn State can hold onto a seeded berth.

If Regionals were today, the following would be the Northeast Region individual qualifiers:

 All-Around

Alina Liao, Yale
Kelly Gurney, U. of Rhode Island
Sarah Bulka, Brockport State
Julia Zimmerman, MIT
Kira Oldham-Curtis, Ursinus
Alt.- Bree Morrissey, Ursinus

Vault

Colleen Davis, Cornell
Alt.- Lauren Gildermeyer, Brockport State

Bars

Alicia Sacramone, Brown
Alt.- Molly Parker, Cornell

Beam

Alicia Sacramone, Brown
Alt.- Jennifer Sobuta, Brown

Floor

Noelle Moore, Temple
Alt.- Miki Seltzer, Yale

South Central Region

Seeded Teams:  (Range of Scores, High to Low)
#8      Nebraska        196.19  (1.625)
#9      Oklahoma        196.005  (1.125)
#11     Arkansas        195.625  (1.475)
#15     Arizona           195.43  (1.35)
#18     Missouri         194.985 (1.925)

Unseeded Teams in position to qualify:
#20     Illinois-Champaign      194.47  (2.625)
#21     Arizona State             194.38  (3.45)
#41     Southeast Missouri     192.375  (2.85)

Next in line:
#42     Illinois-Chicago        192.325   (5.225)
#43     Northern Illinois       191.94   (3.425)

This week, Missouri was able to move up into the last seeded position by replacing a 192.x with a 195.x.  Arizona State, in its first week with an RQS, fills that new unseeded spot.  Illinois-Champaign moved up three spots in the rankings.  These two unseeded teams should continue to challenge the top eighteen through the end of the season.

Illinois-Chicago made a large RQS improvement this week, replacing two 189s with a 191.x and a 192.x.  With this team’s huge range of counting scores and only a small RQS difference between them and Southeast Missouri, it would not be surprising for Illinois-Chicago to pass Southeast Missouri for the final unseeded spot.  Likewise, Northern Illinois is within striking distance of either of these teams.

If Regionals were today, the following would be the South Central Region individual qualifiers:

All-Around
Annie Kachman, Illinois-Chicago
Jessie Jaworowicz, Illinois-Chicago
Leah Johnson, Northern Illinois
Whitney Albright, Illinois State
Jessica Prousa, Illinois State
Alt.- Meaghan Koshman, Illinois State

Vault

Meaghan Koshman, Illinois State
Alt.- Justine Weyer, Illinois-Chicago

Bars

Courtney Arno, Texas Woman’s
Alt.- (tie) Jody Yednock, Northern Illinois; Zandre Labuschagne, Illinois-Chicago

Beam

Courtney Arno, Texas Woman’s
Alt.- Brittany Parker, Texas Woman’s

Floor

Rachael Zelinski, Illinois-Chicago
Alt.- Natalie Blum, Northern Illinois

Southeast Region

Seeded Teams:
#1      Florida        197.365  (0.675)
#2      Georgia       197.275  (1)

Unseeded Teams in position to qualify:
#22     North Carolina State    194.345  (0.65)
#23     West Virginia              194.32  (1.725)
#32     North Carolina             193.39  (3.8)

Next in line:

#36     Maryland        192.825 3.3
#45     Towson          191.835  (4.85)

In the quiet Southeast Region, there are no major stories this week.  Florida and Georgia are locks for seeded berths, and North Carolina State and West Virginia are arguably locks for unseeded berths.  North Carolina looks relatively secure and even has room to make some big improvements by dropping the 191.x and the 192.x that are holding back its RQS.  Maryland, with a weak showing at home this week, failed to improve its RQS and continues to have three 191s and three 194s counting.  With a stellar showing in the last few weeks of the season, Maryland could overtake North Carolina.

If Regionals were today, the following would be the Southeast Region individual qualifiers:

All-Around

Brandi George, Maryland
Jackie Schweitzer, Towson
Decelia Willacy, Towson
Tricia Long, William and Mary
No other athletes currently have RQS.

Vault

Christina Ghani, Towson
Alt.- Angela Ferg, Maryland

Bars

Alison Dama, Maryland
Alt.- Rachel Colon, Maryland

Beam

Talia Tossone, Maryland
Alt.- Angela Ferg, Maryland

Floor

Christina Ghani, Towson
Alt.- Jess Guilbert, George Washington

West Region

Seeded Teams:  (Range of Scores, High to Low)
#3      Stanford           196.53  (1.2)
#5      UCLA               196.28  (1.175)
#10     Oregon State    195.79  (2.375)

Unseeded Teams in position to qualify:
#28     Washington                  194.14  (2.125)
#35     San Jose State             193.15  (0.6)
#37     Sacramento State         192.76  (2.025)

Next in line:
#44     Boise State     191.885 (2.875)
#47     California         191.635 (3.825)

With three teams looking very secure in seeded positions and no other teams close, it doesn’t seem that there will be any last-minute surprises (from teams dropping from the Top 18 seeds) for the remaining teams fighting for unseeded spots.  Washington replaced a 188.x with a 194.x this week and moved up four spots in the rankings, further solidifying its lead in the race for unseeded slots.  San Jose State moved up one spot by replacing a 189.x with a 193.x, but this team is now stuck with a tiny range of counting scores, the smallest of any team in the nation.  It may be hard for San Jose State to ward off Sacramento State, and even Boise State and California are still in the running for qualification to Regionals.  The latter two teams would have to prove themselves to be solid 193-teams for the remainder of the season.

Debra Huss, Seattle-Pacific
DeAvera Todd, Boise State
Rachael Lehmkuhl, Alaska
Courtney Williams, Alaska
No other athletes have a RQS. 

Tanya Ho, UC Davis
Alt.- Carrie Lujan, UC Davis

Katie Griffis, Boise State
Alt.- Yvette Leizorek, Boise State

Kristin Aldrich, Boise State
Alt.- Katie Griffis, Boise State

Yvette Leizorek, Boise State
Alt.- Andi Dolinsky, UC Davis